TeddyD’s Forecast

Sept 8th, 2018

Florence has been downgraded to a tropical storm but that won’t last as she will intensify back to hurricane strength by Sunday, then gaining strength becoming a major hurricane Category 3 or 4 by Tuesday.  The current consensus of models have Florence smashing the Carolinas, but after that is up in the air.  The GFS model has her hanging off Cape Hatteras for a few days while the Euro has her going inland to West Virginia and fizzling.  If the GFS is correct we will have waves for a week+ after she makes landfall, if the Euro is right our swell window is much smaller.

For now we have local NE winds as predicted giving us sloppy conditions.  Seas will build and Sunday we will see solid 6-8ft surf with stiff onshore winds from a combination of groundswell and windswell.  Monday we will see the weather shift back to a more southerly flow which should make conditions more manageable, but that windswell will begin to decline.  My guess is Tuesday and Wednesday we will see 3-4ft surf from Florence groundswell with south winds (light 8-12 knots) both days, then the surf will take a big jump Thursday as Florence hits the Southeast seaboard. Solid groundswell in the form of 6-8′ @ 14-15 seconds potentially.  After that, lets see what happens with the models over the next few days.

Updates as I see them…TeddyD